Dive Brief:

• As tariff volatility continues to roil the economic outlook, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon pushed Friday for a speedy resolution on global trade agreements, although he doesn’t expect uncertainty to clear up by July. 
• “The best thing to do is to allow the secretary of treasury, and the folks working with him in the administration, to finish as quick as possible the agreements that they need to make around tariffs and with our trading partners,” Dimon said when the bank reported first-quarter earnings results Friday. “That does not mean you won’t have some of the effects take place anyway,” he added.
• The trade war poses certain risks to the New York City-based bank, given its business around the globe, Dimon said. “Add that to the list of worries – we will be in the crosshairs,” he said. “Some clients or some countries will feel differently about American banks, and we’ll just have to deal with that.”

Dive Insight:

Dimon noted “considerable turbulence” now roiling the economy, pointing to tariffs, trade conflicts and sticky inflation, among other factors, in a release reporting the bank’s first-quarter results Friday.

By mid-July, “I don’t think we’ll necessarily be through all the uncertainty. I think you’ll just know a lot more,” Dimon told analysts during Friday’s call. 

After announcing on April 2 a 10% baseline tariff on U.S. imports and higher “reciprocal” duties on dozens of countries, President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he was pausing the “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days, with the exception of those imposed on China. The tariff menu announced last week had tanked global markets and prompted predictions of recession. 

The JPMorgan CEO said it’s “almost impossible” to liken this to a previous cycle or past situation. “There’s a lot of issues out there,” he said. “I think some of those issues, you are going to see them resolve, for better or for worse, in the next four months.” 

The biggest U.S. bank, for its part, has “the margins and capability to get through just about anything,” Dimon asserted. The bank’s investments in branches and technology will continue, and JPMorgan has “plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity, to get through whatever the stormy seas are.” 

However, this scenario is unique, he emphasized. 

“The most important thing to me is the Western world stays together, economically – when we get through all this – and militarily,” Dimon said. “I really almost don’t care fundamentally about what the economy does the next two quarters. That isn’t that important. We’ll get through that. We’ve had recessions before and all that. It’s the ultimate outcome. What’s the goal, how can we get there?” 

The escalating situation with China, which continues to raise its tariffs on U.S. imports in response, “is a major issue,” he added. It’s “a significant change that we’ve never seen in our lives.”

Dimon would like to see the administration negotiate trade deals. “I think that will be good for everybody,” he said. “And they want to do it, too; they’ve said they want to do it, they said they’re having conversations with 70, 80 different people.”

Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf on Friday also encouraged “timely resolution” of the Trump administration’s trade pursuits. The bank expects “continued volatility and uncertainty and [is] prepared for a slower economic environment in 2025, but the actual outcome will be dependent on the results and timing of the policy changes,” Scharf said in a news release accompanying Wells’ first-quarter earnings, which were also announced Friday. 

‘Unusually uncertain’ future

JPMorgan reported investment banking revenue of $2.3 billion in the quarter, up 2% year over year. Investment banking fees jumped 12%, driven in part by higher advisory fees, which reflected the closing of deals announced in 2024. 

But CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank is adopting a cautious stance with regard to its investment banking outlook. Although client engagement and dialogue is elevated, “both the conversion of the existing pipeline and origination of new activity will require a reduction in the current levels of uncertainty,” he said. 

“The focus right now is on the future, which is obviously unusually uncertain,” Barnum said. 

As commercial clients react to various tariff policies, it shifts their focus from other strategic priorities that involve the lender’s investment bank, Barnum said.

Many companies have a “a wait-and-see attitude,” as it’s hard to make long-term decisions right now, he said. Larger corporate clients have more experience and resources to deal with the unknown, while smaller companies may be more challenged, he added.

The bank’s economists are predicting 50/50 odds for a recession, Dimon noted. “Obviously, if there’s a recession, credit loss will go up,” he said. 

Analysts have already reduced earnings estimates, which Dimon expects to fall further, and companies across various sectors will detail potential effects to their businesses. 

“Anecdotally, a lot of people are not doing things because of this. They’re going to wait and see,” he said. “That’s M&A, that’s M&A with middle-market companies, that’s people’s hiring plans.”

Tariff uncertainty also has some consumers spending ahead of any price increases from tariffs, Barnum said. 

JPMorgan logged a $973 million net reserve build during the quarter, citing risks and uncertainties of the current environment. When an analyst asked about JPMorgan’s credit card net charge-off forecast for the year, Dimon said the bank shouldn’t have issued that forecast given the lack of clarity for the months ahead. “We don’t know what the number’s going to be,” he said. 

Dimon also railed against bank regulation, noting the Trump administration has indicated a “deep recognition of the flaws in the system.” Modifications to rules and regulations are likely to reduce the bank’s costs, he noted. 

Net income for the bank jumped 9%, to $14.6 billion, on an 8% rise in revenue, to $45.3 billion.